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 Добавлено: Пн Янв 20, 2020 6:29 am Заголовок сообщения: One of the worst things a quarterback can do is to check |
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| down on third and long. Yes Womens Muhammad Wilkerson Jersey , sometimes a receiver will heroically make it to the sticks, but in general, if a quarterback doesn’t throw to the sticks, they are often (but as it turns out, not always!) conceding a punt, which is the equivalent of conceding a turnover.Every year, Football Outsiders measures a QB’s propensity to check down at the worst possible time through the stat of ALEX (Air Less EXpected, named in honor of Alex Smith). ALEX is a measure of whether or not quarterbacks throw to the sticks on third down. Checking down on third down is usually a bad idea, and so ALEX was developed to shed light on the cowardly, while highlighting the accomplishments of the smart and brave. The good thing for the Green Bay Packers is that even in a down year, Aaron Rodgers, was smart and brave, throwing to the sticks on 3rd down more often than anyone outside of the otherworldly Patrick Mahomes of the Chiefs. The bad thing was that Rodgers wasn’t actually very good at completing those passes, because even though he was 2nd in ALEX, he was 21st in conversion rate. There are all sorts of reasons for this, including poor play-calling, an outdated strategy that relied on “trying to make third down manageable,” a maddening tendency to take sacks, an inexperienced receiving crew, and throwing bombs on 3rd and 1 for no good reason. However, the fact still stands that Rodgers was smart enough to throw past the first down marker, though he was unable to actually complete most of those passes.2018 was an interesting season that really showed everyone the value of intelligent playcalling, and in ALEX http://www.packerslockerroom.com/authentic-demetri-goodson-jersey , the geniuses came through in an unconventional way. Jared Goff, Andrew Luck, and Drew Brees all ranked in the lower half of ALEX, but as it turns out, if your scheme is good enough your receivers can actually pick up first downs through YAC. Surprisingly, all three of those quarterbacks finished in the top ten in conversion rate. Some short passes are made out of panic, and some are made out of well-designed surgical strikes; in the modern game, ALEX probably requires more context than it used to. If you generate reliable YAC, throwing short isn’t so bad. Goff and Brees are typical of a movement in the NFL that has well-run teams focusing on avoiding third downs altogether, often throwing to the ALEX-level on first and second down. On third down, the Saints and Rams in particular focus on conversion rate above all else. They get conservative in terms of bombs and other low-completion-percentage, high leverage throws, but pull out any play that can get them ten yards, whether or not the requires an ALEX throw. The smart teams have figured out which plays are most likely to move the sticks, and that is what they run in crunch time.It’s better to be Aaron Rodgers than old Alex Smith, but it’s best to have a good QB working in an analytically-minded offense. Maybe we’ll get there next season. Marcus Mariota and Matt LaFleurWe may not know much of new head coach Matt LaFleur, but at the very least he had Marcus Mariota throwing to the sticks, and unlike Aaron Rodgers, Marcus was pretty good at doing so. In 2018, Mariota ranked 10th in ALEX and 5th in conversion rate. That alone would provide some hope for Matt LaFleur, although Mariota was also good in ALEX before LaFleur arrived. I suspect that ALEX is more of a coaching-based stat when we see high conversion rates paired with low ALEX, and more of a QB stat when we see either low-low, or any kind of high ALEX. In any case Muhammad Wilkerson Jersey White , this probably says more about Mariota than LaFleur, but at least LaFleur’s offense wasn’t getting in the way. In 2018, the Green Bay Packers’ running backs as a whole had a fairly solid season as receivers. The team’s three primary running backs — a group whose numbers dropped to two after Brian Gutekunst traded Ty Montgomery — all had good if unspectacular seasons catching the football, and combined they made for a respectable group. Each of the three finished the season with over receiving 150 yards as Packers, and the stats break down as follows:Jamaal Williams: 41 targets, 27 receptions (65.9% catch rate), 210 yards (7.8 Y/R), no TDsAaron Jones: 35 targets, 26 receptions (74.3%), 206 yards (7.9 Y/R), 1 TDTy Montgomery: 23 targets, 15 receptions (65.2%), 170 yards (11.3 Y/R), no TDsGreen Bay also had two other backs with catches: Kapri Bibbs (three for 13 yards) and fullback Danny Vitale (one for two yards). In total, the team’s backs caught 72 passes for 601 yards, which was good for 8.35 yards per reception and a catch rate of 67.9%.With Mike McCarthy fired and Matt LaFleur on board as the team’s next head coach, it’s worth a look at LaFleur’s history to see how his offenses have used the running back position as receivers. He has been a quarterbacks coach or offensive coordinator in the NFL since 2010 (excluding a one-year stint as QBs coach at Notre Dame in 2014), and in that time, the signal-callers he has worked with have almost always had great success throwing to their backs, and generally one back has become the go-to player in that role.Take a look at the 2018 Titans, for example. They are a team that has a somewhat similar running back breakdown to the Packers: both teams have a big, physical runner (Derrick Henry/Jamaal Williams) and a smaller, more elusive and explosive player (Dion Lewis/Aaron Jones). The players’ skill sets are not exact comparisons http://www.packerslockerroom.com/authentic-deshone-kizer-jersey , of course — Williams is a much better receiver than Henry, Lewis has shown to be a better receiver than Jones so far, and Jones is a more explosive runner than Lewis — but the comparisons are reasonable.In 2018, Tennessee threw 85 passes to their tailbacks, 21 fewer than the Packers did. However, a large number of those targets — 67 — went to Lewis, who caught 59 of them for 400 yards and one score. Henry picked up the other 18 targets, catching 15 for 99 yards. It was not a huge performance as a team, but a 500-yard receiving season between two players on a team that finished with 2,975 total passing yards is still respectable. In addition, their combined 87% catch rate suggests that LaFleur was scheming to get these players the ball quickly and in space to let them make good things happen in the open field.However, we can go back a bit further and find truly exceptional receiving numbers from LaFleur’s backfields. The 2017 Rams and the 2015-16 Falcons had more explosive receiving numbers from their backs, although that is also a function of having players of Todd Gurley’s and Devonta Freeman’s caliber. Still, one can see these teams feeding a primary running back the ball frequently out of the backfield. Here are the top receiving back’s numbers from those teams:Todd Gurley (2017 Rams): 87 targets, 64 receptions (73.6% catch rate), 788 yards (12.3 Y/R), 6 TDsDevonta Freeman (2016 Falcons): 65 targets, 54 receptions (83.1%), 462 yards (8.6 Y/R), 2 TDsFreeman (2015): 97 targets, 73 receptions (75.3%), 578 yards (7.9 Y/R), 3 TDsThe 2015 and 2017 teams referenced here had no real secondary targets out of the backfield. However http://www.packerslockerroom.com/authentic-lane-taylor-jersey , the 2016 Falcons may provide a good blueprint for the Packers’ potential in 2019. That year, Atlanta had a second excellent receiving back in Tevin Coleman, who caught another 31 balls for 421 yards and three scores. That brought the total up to nearly 900 combined receiving yards between the two players, almost 18 percent of Matt Ryan’s total for that season.In Washington, the numbers were less impressive, but so were the personnel. Still, Roy Helu proved to be consistent and productive, averaging 50 targets, 40 receptions, and 315 yards in two full seasons as that team’s primary receiving back.The Packers could be on track for a similar breakdown to that Falcons duo from 2016. Williams has proven to be an adept receiver in multiple ways, picking up big plays on screens, throws in the flat, and wheel routes down field. Jones is on the record saying he wants to improve his receiving abilities for 2019, and those skills were already identified as a strength of his prior to his selection in the 2017 NFL Draft. He did not demonstrate it much as a rookie, but his 2018 showed significant glimpses of his ability, perhaps best illustrated by his lone touchdown through the air:Using Jones more as a receiver, combined with an even heavier dose of zone-blocking that plays to his great vision and cutback ability, should help him continue to develop into a top-flight starting running back. Meanwhile, Williams’ ability to pass-protect and catch the football, as well as the impressive elusiveness and cutback skills he displayed late in 2018, should make him a very good number two option in LaFleur’s scheme.In short, it’s a good day to be a Packers running back. |
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